Road to Rio... the stars racing to Brazil and those who have broken down in battle to qualify for the World Cup

A whopping 203 nations from every corner of the globe set off on the Road to Rio, all with hopes and dreams of being among the elite 32 in Brazil next summer.
Slowly but surely, they are being whittled down in international football’s Survival
of the Fittest.
On some continents, we have a clear idea of which nations will be joining the Carnival, while others are as clear as mud.
As we hurtle towards another busy weekend of qualifiers, Sportsmail brings you up to speed with the probables and the possibles for World Cup 2014.

Wish you were here? The Copacabana is calling the world's finest players as World Cup qualification reaches the business end

 

EUROPE

The nine group winners qualify for the finals automatically. The eight best runners-up (determined by their records against the first, third, fourth and fifth-placed teams because some group have less teams in them) qualify for two-legged play-offs.

Group A

Likely Group winners: Belgium Likely play-off place: Croatia
Likely to miss out: Serbia, Macedonia, Wales, Scotland
Decisive game: Croatia v Belgium – Zagreb, October 11
With four matches played, Belgium and Croatia have a firm stranglehold on Group A as the Home Nations flounder at the bottom.
Belgium have their most exciting crop of players for a generation, and the contributions of Eden Hazard, Thomas Vermaelen, Vincent Kompany et al have delivered wins over Wales, Scotland and Serbia.

On the charge: Chelsea's Eden Hazard on international duty for Belgium in the 1-1 draw with Croatia back in September

Croatia are hot on their heels though, and the meeting of the top two in Brussels back in September ended in a 1-1 draw. The rematch on October 11 looks destined to decide the group winners.
The prospects of Wales (three points) and Scotland (two) making the finals already appear bleak. Despite Gareth Bale being the group’s top scorer, the Welsh endured an abysmal start, losing at home to Belgium and then, humiliatingly, 6-1 in Serbia.

Shout to the top: Gareth Bale scored a late winner against Scotland, but Wales are unlikely to make it to Brazil

Bale’s late winner restored some pride against the Scots back in October, but the good work was immediately undone in Croatia.
Scotland intended to use the luxury of two home openers as a springboard to a first tournament since 1998. It didn’t work out that way – a drab goalless draw with Serbia was followed by a frustrating one-all with Macedonia.

Group B

Likely Group winners: Italy Likely play-off place: Czech Republic or Denmark
Likely to miss out: Bulgaria, Armenia, Malta
Decisive games: Denmark v Italy – Copenhagen, October 11 – and Bulgaria v Czech Republic – Sofia, October 15
Italy, with 10 points already on the board from their first four games, already look like cantering to another finals. They were held by Bulgaria in their opener, but have since recorded modest but necessary wins over Malta and Armenia, plus a 3-1 over Denmark, to take control.

Character: Mario Balotelli celebrates scoring Italy's third goal against Denmark at the San Siro in October

Beneath them, it really is an open contest between Bulgaria, Denmark and the Czech Republic for the play-off spot and with all three likely to take points off one another, this could well be the odd one out group where the second placed nation doesn’t get in the play-offs.
Denmark have struggled to get going so far, labouring to draws with the Czechs and Bulgaria, before losing to Italy. Failure to get anything in the Czech Republic on Friday and it could all be over for them. 

Group C

Likely Group winners: Germany Likely play-off place: Sweden or Republic of Ireland
Likely to miss out: Austria, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands
Decisive game: Republic of Ireland v Sweden - Dublin, September 6
Germany have been at every World Cup since 1950 and they’re strolling to another despite a little hiccup in their last game, when they threw away a four-goal lead in a phenomenal match with Sweden back in October.

Incredible: Sweden, inspired by Zlatan Ibrahimovic, came from four goals down to get a draw with Germany in October

But progress to Brazil will be serene for Joachim Lowe and his prodigiously talented side who, boasting the likes of Bastian Schweinsteiger, Philipp Lahm and Mesut Ozil, will be one of the favourites to win the whole thing.
Their 6-1 win against Ireland, currently third in the group, underlined their class once again. With a double header against Kazakhstan this week, they’ll be pretty much walking down the Copacabana by Tuesday evening.

Six of the best: Toni Kroos scores Germany's final goal in their 6-1 win against the Republic of Ireland in Dublin

Sweden, currently second, can gain some breathing space on Friday in their home match with Ireland but it’s the return in September that will determine the play-off contender.

Group D

Likely Group winners: Holland Likely play-off place: Hungary or Romania
Likely to miss out: Turkey, Estonia, Andorra
Decisive game:  Romania v Hungary – Bucharest, September 6
Looking even more impressive than the Germans so far are the Dutch, who have maximum returns and 13 goals from their four matches so far. The gulf between them and the rest was demonstrated by a comprehensive 4-1 win in Hungary – currently the second-placed side.
The play-off place looks like a dogfight between Hungary, who haven’t qualified since Mexico 1986, and Romania, absent since France 1998. Turkey, who were third in the tournament in 2002, have an uphill struggle to get through and need to get something against Hungary in Istanbul on Tuesday to kick-start their campaign.

Sore one: Robin van Persie is fouled by Hungary's Roland Juhasz during Holland's 4-1 win in Budapest

Group E

Likely Group winners: Switzerland or Norway Likely play-off place: Switzerland or Norway
Likely to miss out: Albania, Iceland, Slovenia or Cyprus
Decisive game: Norway v Switzerland – Oslo, September 10
Not the most inspiring group, but one that could give Norway the chance to reach their first finals since 1998. They didn’t start well, losing 2-0 to Iceland, but have recovered to sit second in the group – just ahead of Albania.

English links: Norway's Erik Huseklepp (right), who played for Portsmouth and Birmingham last season, celebrates with Blackburn midfielder Morten Gamst Pedersen

But it’s Switzerland who are on course to make the finals – they went to Iceland and won, and they also beat Slovenia, who might have been fancied to challenge but haven’t got going. Their only dropped points came in the 1-1 draw at home to Norway back in October.
When they meet again in September, it’s likely to decide which will take the easy route to Brazil and which will face the lottery of the play-offs.

Group F

Likely Group winners: Russia Likely play-off place: Israel or Portugal
Likely to miss out: Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg
Decisive game: Portugal v Israel – Lisbon, October 11
With Cristiano Ronaldo in their ranks, Portugal would have been favourites to get out of this group and score plenty of goals in the process. It hasn’t gone to plan yet…
They embarrassingly fell behind in their opening game against minnows Luxembourg, before recovering to scrape a 2-1 win. But their failings were exposed in defeat to Russia and a dreary home draw with Northern Ireland in which they trailed for a long spell.

Superstar: Portugal captain Cristiano Ronaldo and his team have work to do if they're to ensure their spot at the finals in Brazil

The Russians have taken full advantage with four wins from four and even though they only play once this time round, will still be sitting pretty at the top by next week.

Group G

Likely Group winners: Bosnia or Greece Likely play-off place: Greece or Slovakia
Likely to miss out: Lithuania, Latvia, Liechtenstein
Decisive game: Bosnia v Greece - Zenica, Friday
Free scoring Bosnia will never get a better chance to qualify for a first World Cup. With Manchester City’s Edin Dzeko leading the line, they’ve made a storming start to their group, netting eight against Liechtenstein, four against Latvia and three against Lithuania.

Debutants: Edin Dzeko is firing Bosnia to their first World Cup finals

But their meeting with 2004 Euro winners Greece ended in stalemate back in October and only goal difference separates the two as we approach the mid-way point.
The two are set to meet again this Friday in Bosnia in a game that will go a long way towards deciding the group – though in reality, both are likely to get through.

Group H

Likely group winners: England Likely play-off place: Montenegro or Poland
Likely to miss out: Moldova, Ukraine, San Marino
Decisive games: England v Montenegro – Wembley, October 15 – and England v Poland – Wembley, October 15
So, work to do for England in this next couplet of qualifiers against San Marino and Montenegro. Roy Hodgson will be desperate to avoid the play-off route to Rio and the fact there are three home fixtures remaining should ensure they do just that.

On form: England have already beaten Brazil this year, thanks to goals from Wayne Rooney and Frank Lampard

However, nothing is guaranteed and the home draw with the otherwise struggling Ukraine and the solitary point procured from a winning position in Poland have exposed some flaws. Montenegro will draw confidence ahead of Tuesday night from the last meeting back in 2011 – a 2-2 draw when Wayne Rooney was sent off.
With a game in hand and both games with whipping boys San Marino still to come, you would expect Poland to pip Montenegro to the play-off spot.

Group I

Likely Group winners: Spain or France Likely play-off place: Spain or France
Likely to miss out: Georgia, Belarus, Finland
Decisive game: France v Spain – Paris, Tuesday
Spain and France would have been less than delighted to be paired together, but spare a thought for the other three sides!
Right from the beginning, we knew that the meeting between the two giants would decide the top two places and, with the first one in Madrid ending all-square, that situation remains the same ahead of Tuesday’s attractive-looking return in Paris.
Quite what the other sides are playing for, I’m not sure.

 

ASIA

Looking likely to qualify: Uzbekistan, South Korea, Japan, Australia
In with a shout: Iran, Qatar, Iraq, Oman, Jordan
The long and winding Asian qualification campaign is finally starting to take some shape, with the ten remaining nations at the fourth of five stages – a round robin group phase with two sets of five teams.
The fixtures continue this weekend and conclude in June. The top two from each group qualify automatically and the two third-placed countries play-off for the right to enter an Intercontinental play-off against the fifth-placed South American side.

On course: Japan and Man United midfielder Shinji Kagawa are odds on to reach the finals

The way things are looking in Asia, we could see some first-time qualifiers. For starters, China, North Korea and Saudi Arabia, all qualifiers in the recent past, have already fallen by the wayside.
That means we won’t have the novelty of watching the North Koreans pretend to be the greatest footballing superpower of all time.
In Group A, the surprise package so far have undoubtedly been Uzbekistan, who are top of the group and on track for their first World Cup ever. Behind them, it’s a bun fight between South Korea – regular qualifiers – Iran and Qatar, locked together on seven points each.

GROUP A

1. Uzbekistan                         Pld 5 GD +1 Pts 8
2. South Korea                      Pld 4 GD +5 Pts 7
3. Iran                                      Pld 5 GD 0 Pts 7
4. Qatar                                  Pld 5 GD -2 Pts 7
5. Lebanon                             Pld 5 GD -4 Pts 4

GROUP B

1. Japan                             Pld 5 GD +11 Pts 13
2. Australia                              Pld 4 GD 0 Pts 5
3. Iraq                                     Pld 5 GD -1 Pts 5
4. Oman                                 Pld 5 GD -3 Pts 5
5. Jordan                                Pld 5 GD -7 Pts 4

Not this time: North Korea, who were the centre of attention in 2010, have been eliminated

Tuesday’s two fixtures – Uzbekistan v Lebanon and South Korea v Qatar – will help break the deadlock.
In Group B, Japan are odds-on to reach a fifth successive finals with four wins and a draw so far. Australia were the side to take points off them and should emerge ahead of Iraq, Oman and Jordan given their greater pedigree. Next week, Australia host Oman and Jordan play Japan.

 

AFRICA

Group leaders: Ethiopia, Tunisia, Ivory Coast, Zambia, Congo, Nigeria, Egypt, Benin, Libya, Senegal
It would be foolish to predict the outcomes of the 10 African groups given that the bulk of the fixtures left to be played, but we can at least identify some of the traditional bigger names with work to do.
In Group A, South Africa’s return to the unpredictability of qualifying has started slowly, with two draws to date. But given pace-setters Ethiopia finished bottom of their group at the Africa Cup of Nations in January, they should be easily reeled in.

On our way: Nigeria, who won the Africa Cup of Nations in February, have also made a good start to their World Cup campaign

Pack your bags: The Ivory Coast and Gervinho are well set to reach the finals

Morocco face a similar situation in Group C, but with only one team emerging from each group into the final play-off round, they will do well to usurp the Ivory Coast. Ghana and Zambia’s second meeting in Group D, in September, will prove interesting.
In Group I, Cameroon, who didn’t even get to the Cup of Nations, were further rocked by an early defeat to Libya, while Emmanuel Adebayor’s Togo have yet to register a win.

 

NORTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA

The CONCACAF qualifying tournament is down to its fourth –and final – round, which is also known as ‘The Hex’ because it features six surviving teams. The top three head to Brazil automatically, while the fourth plays the leading country from Oceania in a two-legged play-off.
Only one match of ‘The Hex’ has been completed so far, with Honduras beating the United States 2-1 in a surprise result. Costa Rica and Panama shared four goals, while Mexico were held goalless by Jamaica.

More of the same: The United States held England to a 1-1 draw at the last World Cup, with Clint Dempsey, now at Tottenham, scoring (pictured)

'THE HEX'

1. Honduras                           Pld 1 GD +1 Pts 3
2. Costa Rica                           Pld 1 GD 0 Pts 1
3. Panama                               Pld 1 GD 0 Pts 1
4. Jamaica                               Pld 1 GD 0 Pts 1
5. Mexico                                 Pld 1 GD 0 Pts 1
6. United States                      Pld 1 GD -1 Pts 0

Mexico and the States will be the obvious favourites to qualify, both having emerged from the previous group phase as winners. Having gained a taste in South Africa 2010, Honduras will be hoping for a return ticket, while Jamaica haven’t got there since France 1998. Panama would be first-time qualifiers.
On Friday, Honduras welcome Mexico, Jamaica play Panama and the US play Costa Rica in Colorado. 

 

SOUTH AMERICA

With Brazil through as hosts, the arduous South American round robin doesn’t seem quite as long this time round. The top four qualify no problem and the fifth side take on the third-placed Asian team.
We’ve at the half-way point presently, and a cluster of three have put a little bit of daylight between them and the rest. Argentina lead and have the best goal difference – they also have two of the top scorers in Gonzalo Higuain and Lionel Messi on seven goals apiece.

Top scorer: Lionel Messi has seven goals already in Argentina's qualification campaign

SOUTH AMERICAN GROUP

1. Argentina                       Pld 9 GD +13 Pts 20
2. Ecuador                           Pld 9 GD +3 Pts 17
3. Colombia                         Pld 9 GD +8 Pts 16
4. Venezuela                        Pld 9 GD -1 Pts 12
5. Uruguay                           Pld 9 GD -2 Pts 12
6. Chile                                 Pld 9 GD -4 Pts 12
7. Bolivia                                Pld 9 GD -2 Pts 8
8. Peru                                   Pld 9 GD -5 Pts 8
9. Paraguay                         Pld 9 GD -10 Pts 7

Their only slip-up to date was a 1-0 defeat in Venezuela on matchday two, but impressively they have gained wins in Chile and Columbia along the way and have been very clinical at home.
Ecuador and Columbia are jostling beneath, while a real scrap is on the cards for the other places between Venezuela, Uruguay and Chile. Luis Suarez has been carrying his county’s hopes with seven strikes so far.
On Friday it’s Columbia v Bolivia, Uruguay v Paraguay, Argentina v Venezuela and Peru v Chile.

 

OCEANIA

Down in Oceania, New Zealand are looking good to set-up a date with the fourth-placed North American nation to decide another place at the finals.
With two matches to go in the final group phase, New Zealand have a 100% record and a win over nearest challengers New Caledonia on Friday will see them into the play-off. 

Magic moment: New Zealand were unbeaten at the 2010 World Cup and Shane Smeltz scored against Italy

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2295927/World-Cup-Brazil-2014-Qualifying-update-England-Spain-Italy-France-Germany-Brazil-Argentina-try-reach-Rio.html#ixzz2V4goEM2m